Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 9?

● quote 112 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $17.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $53.8KEvent: Ethereum above ___ on August 9?
96.5¢
YES
3.5¢
NO
1.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
24h sample:10 trades$276 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 141 min agoofficial metadata 114 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$29
6h
−$173
tracked
$276

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.1¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 112 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 141 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 114 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$29
6h−$173
24h−$173

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.5¢
VWAP 24h92.6¢▲ above by 3.9pp
VWAP 7d92.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$74
90¢
$203
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.