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Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?

● quote 20 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $158.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.2KEvent: Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection64Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$1.9K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$1.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$2 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 20 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $600 → $596 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.2K
6h−$1.2K
24h−$1.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h77.6¢▲ above by 22.4pp
VWAP 7d77.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5
90¢
$0
85¢
$151
80¢
$195
75¢
$1.5K
70¢
$103
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$9
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.