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LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 10 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $565.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:346 trades$564.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $3.6K·2 wallets·$15.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAnyones Legend (NO)$34.8K@ 100¢·0xb041…5b72

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$85.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$85.6K
6h
−$16.0K
tracked
$564.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$3.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: -13.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 10 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and Anyone's Legend in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 15 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Anyone's Legend. This market will resolve to "Anyone's Legend" if Anyone's Legend win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf2f2…05503 linked markets · $112.9K gross
RoshanMVP3 linked markets · $86.5K gross
fkgggg2mouzfuria2 linked markets · $42.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY ThunderTalk Gaming@ 14.0¢46m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Anyones Legend1h ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Anyones Legend@ 54.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Anyones Legend@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +42.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $106 → $66 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$85.6K
6h−$16.0K
24h−$17.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.3¢▼ below by 18.2pp
VWAP 7d18.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.7K
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.2K
50¢
$12.4K
45¢
$93.8K
40¢
$32
35¢
$9.2K
30¢
$57.6K
25¢
$70.8K
20¢
$3.0K
15¢
$31.9K
10¢
$10.1K
5¢
$8.5K
0¢
← now
$258.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$24.1K@ 99.9¢0x6daa…954a🐋—24 minutes ago
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$10.7K@ 99.9¢0x6daa…954a🐋—24 minutes ago
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$14.3K@ 99.9¢0x6daa…954a🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$19.1K@ 99.9¢0x6daa…954a🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$25.4K@ 99.9¢0x6daa…954a🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$33.9K@ 99.9¢0x6daa…954a🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYAnyones Legend (NO)$26.9K@ 99.8¢
fkgggg2mouzfuria0x52ec…a6f3
🐋—32 minutes ago
SELLAnyones Legend (NO)$10.7K@ 99.9¢0x292f…7fc2🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYAnyones Legend (NO)$34.8K@ 99.9¢0xb041…5b72🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYAnyones Legend (NO)$11.1K@ 74.0¢0xf2f2…0550🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAnyones Legend (NO)$12.4K@ 67.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThunderTalk Gaming (YES)$13.3K@ 28.0¢0x633e…d305🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThunderTalk Gaming (YES)$10.6K@ 47.0¢0x6f3e…bcf8🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAnyones Legend (NO)$17.1K@ 54.4¢0x6daa…954a🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x6daa…954aAnyones Legend$71.0K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·10 fills
0xb041…5b72Anyones Legend$34.8K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
fkgggg2mouzfuriaAnyones Legend$26.9K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill
0xf2f2…0550Anyones Legend$18.4K
BUY VWAP 77.2¢·6 fills
0x633e…d305ThunderTalk Gaming$13.3K
BUY VWAP 28.0¢·1 fill
111111111115Anyones Legend$12.4K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
0xf201…527eThunderTalk Gaming$12.2K
BUY VWAP 38.8¢·8 fills
0x6f3e…bcf8ThunderTalk Gaming$10.6K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.