LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner

● quote 10 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $552.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $895.3KEvent: LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly33Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:219 trades$346.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $12.1K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$29.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$17.4K@ 52¢·zb8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.4K
6h
−$102.1K
tracked
$346.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$12.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: -31.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 10 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between BNK FEARX and DN SOOPers in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 15 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win Game 2 against DN SOOPers. This market will resolve to "DN SOOPers" if DN SOOPers win Game 2 against BNK FEARX. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x04b1…d2242 linked markets · $53.3K gross
0x10ef…7d7b3 linked markets · $30.2K gross
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $30.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY BNK FEARX@ 32.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY DN SOOPers@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY DN SOOPers@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY DN SOOPers@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $65$4.4K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.4K
6h$102.1K
24h$103.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.4¢▼ below by 29.3pp
VWAP 7d29.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$12.5K
50¢
$8.0K
45¢
$95.5K
40¢
$7.2K
35¢
$29.8K
30¢
$43.9K
25¢
$42.0K
20¢
$14.1K
15¢
$7.0K
10¢
$7.6K
5¢
$7.2K
0¢
← now
$71.7K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$15.7K@ 52.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDN SOOPers (NO)$17.4K@ 52.0¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115DN SOOPers$42.3K
BUY VWAP 61.2¢·10 fills
zb8DN SOOPers$17.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0x10ef…7d7bDN SOOPers$11.9K
BUY VWAP 75.4¢·5 fills
0x04b1…d224DN SOOPers$11.0K
BUY VWAP 68.4¢·3 fills
0xf201…527eDN SOOPers$10.2K
BUY VWAP 72.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.