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Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $173.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $103.9KEvent: Buccaneers vs. Bengals
100.0¢
Bengals
0.1¢
Buccaneers
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$42.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 127 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bengals · $18.0K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$18.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBengals$18.0K@ 51¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$33.0K
tracked
$42.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Bengals · $18.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +49.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 127 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 49.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bengals" if the Bengals win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bengals" if the Bengals win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $22.1K gross
0xa2b7…42562 linked markets · $9.8K gross
387918739841892 linked markets · $105 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bengals@ 51.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bengals; negative values favor Buccaneers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBengals · $0
6hBengals · $33.0K
24hBengals · $37.5K

Bengals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bengals price. Buccaneers fills are converted to the complementary Bengals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▲ above by 49.0pp
VWAP 7d50.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bengals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$22
80¢
$0
75¢
$44
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$48.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBengals$18.0K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Bengals$18.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.