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Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)

● quote 1972 min ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $97.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.0KEvent: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
99.9¢
YES
1.5¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly34Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$49.4K tracked67% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1990 min agoofficial metadata 1961 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$13.4K@ 55¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$499
6h
+$49.4K
tracked
$49.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$48.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1972 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1990 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1961 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 6 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $22.1K gross
0xc75b…3ea72 linked markets · $94 gross
0xbac4…86db2 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$499
6h+$49.4K
24h+$49.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h57.4¢▲ above by 42.5pp
VWAP 7d57.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$499
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$12.3K
55¢
$36.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$13.4K@ 55.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$12.2K@ 55.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$12.3K@ 60.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$11.0K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafDetroit Tigers$48.9K
BUY VWAP 56.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.