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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5

● quote 1637 min ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $108.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $119.0KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
1.6¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$12.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1662 min agoofficial metadata 1629 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.8K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$11.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$11.8K@ 53¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$145
6h
+$12.4K
tracked
$12.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$11.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1637 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1662 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1629 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 6 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks combine to score 10 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $80.6K gross
0xda03…fa782 linked markets · $1.0K gross
0xbca0…97053 linked markets · $633 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $279 → $1 · 39s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$145
6h+$12.4K
24h+$12.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.6¢
VWAP 24h51.9¢▼ below by 50.3pp
VWAP 7d51.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$11.8K
45¢
$2
40¢
$43
35¢
$320
30¢
$12
25¢
$7
20¢
$29
15¢
$0
10¢
$144
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$11.8K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafOver$11.8K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.