PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5

● quote 1634 min ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $146.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $51.8KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
0.0¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$13.3K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1655 min agoofficial metadata 1626 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$13.3K@ 40¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$12
6h
+$13.3K
tracked
$13.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$13.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 1634 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1655 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 6 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks combine to score 11 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 11, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $80.6K gross
0xda03…fa782 linked markets · $1.0K gross
0xbca0…97053 linked markets · $633 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$12
6h+$13.3K
24h+$13.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h40.0¢▼ below by 40.0pp
VWAP 7d40.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$13.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$12

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$13.3K@ 40.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
100.0¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
28.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$780.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner
35.5¢$765.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$762.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner
33.5¢$750.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
0.1¢$592.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$410.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafOver$13.3K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.