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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $158.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $179.1KEvent: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
99.5¢
YES
0.5¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:29 trades$55.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $13.0K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$79.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$34.3K@ 88¢·betwick

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $9.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.3K
6h
−$4.5K
tracked
$55.0K

11 verified profitable wallets: YES · $13.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 20:29 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 33d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
657657572 linked markets · $28.3K gross
betwick3 linked markets · $27.6K gross
pakukudolphi2 linked markets · $20.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 96.4¢6d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h INVALIDATED -3.3pp6h STALLED -0.7pp24h STALLED -1.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 88.0¢14d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp24h CONFIRMED +4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 87.0¢23d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 85.0¢26d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $9.3K
6hNO · $4.5K
24hNO · $20.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.5¢
VWAP 24h97.6¢▲ above by 1.9pp
VWAP 7d97.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$197.9K
90¢
$98.4K
85¢
$233.5K
80¢
$171.0K
75¢
$8.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$12.4K@ 94.1¢
pakukudolphi0x88e2…7489
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYYES$12.6K@ 96.8¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$13.1K@ 96.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$16.4K@ 96.2¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$11.5K@ 95.7¢
Huludubu0xe738…df65
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 87.7¢
pakukudolphi0x88e2…7489
🐋—14 days ago
BUYYES$34.3K@ 87.8¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—23 days ago
BUYYES$17.3K@ 84.6¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—26 days ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 85.7¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—27 days ago
BUYYES$13.0K@ 81.9¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—30 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 81.7¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—30 days ago
BUYYES$13.3K@ 89.0¢0x8a8b…375c🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 81.8¢
browne0xbf96…9942
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$15.6K@ 80.6¢
png10240x52f5…19da
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$18.1K@ 79.0¢
png10240x52f5…19da
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mr.oziYes$34.1K
BUY VWAP 96.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.