PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

● quote 13s ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $110.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $43.6KEvent: National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
68.5¢
YES
31.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly29Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$22.9K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLearner Tien (YES)$11.3K@ 71¢·0xe6a9…e35a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$200
6h
+$231
tracked
$22.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$74 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$200
6h+$231
24h+$649

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h69.6¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d69.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$11.3K
65¢
← now
$11.6K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLLearner Tien (YES)$10.9K@ 68.3¢0xe6a9…e35a🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$11.3K@ 71.0¢0xe6a9…e35a🐋—about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
2.5¢$413.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
99.5¢$245.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
11.5¢$225.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5¢$218.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
29.5¢$204.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
85.5¢$171.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16.5¢$170.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe6a9…e35aLearner Tien$11.3K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.