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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $175.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $288.1KEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
89.5¢
YES
10.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets36Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$131.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $3.5K·2 wallets·$6.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHANJIN BRION (NO)$13.9K@ 50¢·Zzzz87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$10.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.9K
6h
+$10.2K
tracked
$131.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$3.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 54

Since latest large flow: +38.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 38.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 17:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against HANJIN BRION. This market will resolve to "HANJIN BRION" if HANJIN BRION win the match against Nongshim Red Force. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $96.9K gross
0x04b1…d2242 linked markets · $35.0K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $31.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +29.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $26.3K → $9.1K · 25s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$10.9K
6h+$10.2K
24h+$15.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h58.8¢▲ above by 30.8pp
VWAP 7d58.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$203
80¢
$2.0K
75¢
$21.9K
70¢
$15.6K
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$203
55¢
$0
50¢
$83.6K
45¢
$5.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.2K@ 51.0¢0x8f3a…5ad0🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHANJIN BRION (NO)$13.9K@ 50.0¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8f3a…5ad0Nongshim Red Force$19.5K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·3 fills
0xf201…527eNongshim Red Force$15.5K
BUY VWAP 64.3¢·3 fills
Zzzz87HANJIN BRION$13.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.