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UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $26.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $519.6KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection36Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$215.9K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 58s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSerghei Spivac (YES)$32.9K@ 43¢·rabbitfoot1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$72.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$72.3K
6h
+$20.4K
tracked
$215.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +34.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 34.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Serghei Spivac" if Serghei Spivac is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vitor Petrino at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Vitor Petrino" if Vitor Petrino is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Vitor Petrino17m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Vitor Petrino17m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Vitor Petrino@ 66.0¢20m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Vitor Petrino@ 66.0¢20m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $2.0K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$72.3K
6h+$20.4K
24h+$21.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.2¢▼ below by 38.1pp
VWAP 7d38.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$170.8K
35¢
$1.3K
30¢
$4.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$3.3K
10¢
$15.6K
5¢
$3.5K
0¢
← now
$17.1K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYVitor Petrino (NO)$25.8K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYVitor Petrino (NO)$25.3K@ 58.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYSerghei Spivac (YES)$18.7K@ 43.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSerghei Spivac (YES)$11.4K@ 43.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSerghei Spivac (YES)$17.6K@ 43.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSerghei Spivac (YES)$32.9K@ 43.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSerghei Spivac (YES)$11.5K@ 42.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

rabbitfoot1Serghei Spivac$92.0K
BUY VWAP 42.9¢·5 fills
0x3dfb…abafVitor Petrino$54.2K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·3 fills
aviatoVitor Petrino$11.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.