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Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $214.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $295.3KEvent: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres
91.5¢
YES
8.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly32Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority33Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$123.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 30s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$86.2K@ 57¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
−$79.4K
tracked
$123.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 33

Since latest large flow: -48.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 00:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 22 at 8:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -45.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $19.0K → $827 · 87s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.1K
6h−$79.4K
24h−$75.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current91.5¢
VWAP 24h47.5¢▲ above by 44.0pp
VWAP 7d47.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$29
90¢
← now
$1.1K
85¢
$20
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$2
70¢
$5.1K
65¢
$8.5K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$12.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$94.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMinnesota Twins (YES)$11.7K@ 52.6¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$86.2K@ 57.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1San Diego Padres$86.2K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafMinnesota Twins$11.7K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.