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DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $28.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $72.5KEvent: Broncos vs. Falcons
53.5¢
YES
46.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$37.1K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$26.5K@ 53¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$17
6h
+$35.1K
tracked
$37.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$36.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for August 14 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the DEN and ATL combine to score 39 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 39, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Over@ 54.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 54.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$17
6h+$35.1K
24h+$35.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d53.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$37.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$26.5K@ 53.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Over$36.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.