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Counter-Strike: fnatic vs K27 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

● quote 56 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $49.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $203.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: fnatic vs K27 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection35Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$105.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 62 min agoofficial metadata 60 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $4.2K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$34.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYK27 (NO)$33.8K@ 59¢·0xeac2…dddc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$36.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$36.7K
6h
−$15.0K
tracked
$105.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$4.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 52

Since latest large flow: -17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 56 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 62 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 60 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between fnatic and K27 in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against K27. This market will resolve to "K27" if K27 win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY fnatic@ 58.0¢1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY K27@ 43.0¢1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $154 → $120 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$36.7K
6h−$15.0K
24h−$15.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h48.9¢▼ below by 8.4pp
VWAP 7d48.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$51
75¢
$191
70¢
$2.9K
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$503
55¢
$0
50¢
$59.7K
45¢
$2.1K
40¢
← now
$37.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYK27 (NO)$33.8K@ 58.6¢0xeac2…dddc🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYfnatic (YES)$15.0K@ 52.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYK27 (NO)$17.8K@ 47.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xeac2…dddcK27$33.9K
BUY VWAP 58.6¢·2 fills
DjdjdjekekekK27$19.2K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563fnatic$15.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.