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LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 54 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $211.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $458.3KEvent: LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
46.5¢
YES
53.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets63Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:99 trades$179.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$40.6K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$42.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam WE (YES)$30.2K@ 45¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$38.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$38.3K
6h
+$95.5K
tracked
$179.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$40.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 63

Since latest deadline positioning: -32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Team WE and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 19 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against Team WE. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05634 linked markets · $78.0K gross
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $53.4K gross
five51202 linked markets · $39.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team WE@ 79.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -34.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team WE@ 80.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -35.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.4K → $134 · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$38.3K
6h+$95.5K
24h+$93.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h61.9¢▼ below by 15.4pp
VWAP 7d62.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$8.7K
75¢
$75.8K
70¢
$717
65¢
$112
60¢
$8.4K
55¢
$3.4K
50¢
$6.8K
45¢
← now
$83.5K
40¢
$6.2K
35¢
$634
30¢
$1.1K
25¢
$487
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$28.7K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam WE (YES)$30.2K@ 45.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam WE (YES)$29.7K@ 79.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam WE (YES)$10.5K@ 78.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner
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LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner
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LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
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LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Team WE$41.7K
BUY VWAP 78.7¢·3 fills
Lakersfan111Team WE$30.2K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
0xe907…cff6Team WE$11.7K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·3 fills
0xc69b…2076EDward Gaming$11.2K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·7 fills
0x1b47…d814EDward Gaming$10.6K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.