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Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Sinja Kraus vs Marina Bassols Ribera

● quote 40 min ago
Crypto→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $386.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $157.5KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Sinja Kraus vs Marina Bassols Ribera
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$90.7K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSinja Kraus (YES)$14.9K@ 100¢·0x9909…311c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$33.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$33.4K
6h
+$43.2K
tracked
$90.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$3.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 40 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sinja Kraus and Marina Bassols Ribera in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sinja Kraus' if Sinja Kraus advances against Marina Bassols Ribera. This market will resolve to 'Marina Bassols Ribera' if Marina Bassols Ribera advances against Sinja Kraus. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $412 → $2.4K · 53s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$33.4K
6h+$43.2K
24h+$43.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h89.8¢▲ above by 10.1pp
VWAP 7d89.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$56.2K
90¢
$9.2K
85¢
$4.0K
80¢
$1
75¢
$0
70¢
$9.6K
65¢
$0
60¢
$5.0K
55¢
$5.5K
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLSinja Kraus (YES)$10.5K@ 99.9¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSinja Kraus (YES)$14.9K@ 99.9¢0x9909…311c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSinja Kraus (YES)$10.0K@ 95.3¢0x0c4c…d70d🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x9909…311cSinja Kraus$14.9K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x0c4c…d70dSinja Kraus$12.0K
BUY VWAP 93.6¢·2 fills
anon.1980.123Sinja Kraus$10.5K
BUY VWAP 96.1¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.