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Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $270.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.0KEvent: Colts vs. Chiefs
40.5¢
Chiefs
59.5¢
Colts
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection61Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%
24h sample:19 trades$68.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$13.6K@ 40¢·vilkaZ

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Chiefs SETUP
What the tape says

Chiefs pressure: $41.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$41.8K
6h
+$38.2K
tracked
$68.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 61

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chiefs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-21 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Colts".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 8:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Colts". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
omoi0i02 linked markets · $55.2K gross
quavoo5 linked markets · $52.8K gross
vilkaZ4 linked markets · $48.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Colts. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $41.8K
6hChiefs · $38.2K
24hChiefs · $51.8K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Colts fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h40.3¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d40.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$68.4K
35¢
$31
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChiefs$10.2K@ 40.0¢
xasdasdas210xaaaa…74d8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYChiefs$13.6K@ 40.0¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vilkaZChiefs$17.3K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills
xasdasdas21Chiefs$16.4K
BUY VWAP 40.1¢·4 fills
Yellow-FeverChiefs$14.3K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.