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Spread: Chargers (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $376.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $780.6KEvent: Raiders vs. Chargers
50.5¢
Chargers
49.5¢
Raiders
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$387.3K tracked24% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChargers$102.0K@ 51¢·weflyhigh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chargers pressure: $60.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$60.5K
6h
+$106.8K
tracked
$387.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Chargers · $6.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chargers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chargers" if the Chargers win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Raiders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chargers" if the Chargers win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
VeryLucky8882 linked markets · $11.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Chargers@ 51.0¢25m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Chargers@ 51.0¢45m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Raiders@ 50.0¢52m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Chargers@ 52.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chargers; negative values favor Raiders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChargers · $60.5K
6hChargers · $106.8K
24hChargers · $106.8K

Chargers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chargers price. Raiders fills are converted to the complementary Chargers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chargers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$387.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaiders$55.2K@ 49.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaiders$84.9K@ 49.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYChargers$81.6K@ 51.0¢
DimSumConnoisseur.0xe3c9…4b9c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYChargers$102.0K@ 51.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYChargers$40.8K@ 51.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Raiders vs. Chargers
26.5¢$154.5Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vikings vs. Bears
34.5¢$1.6Mpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Panthers vs. Falcons
55.5¢$1.4Mpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bengals vs. Texans
42.5¢$1.3Mpriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
47.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Titans
74.5¢$1.1Mpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Packers vs. Jets
59.5¢$884.0Kpriority78Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Steelers vs. Patriots
32.5¢$863.8Kpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rRaiders$140.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·2 fills
weflyhighChargers$102.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
DimSumConnoisseur.Chargers$81.6K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingChargers$40.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.