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Spread: Packers (-4.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $274.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $153.0KEvent: Packers vs. Jets
43.5¢
Packers
56.5¢
Jets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly27Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%
24h sample:12 trades$66.1K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPackers$16.0K@ 44¢·vilkaZ

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$535
6h
−$535
tracked
$66.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $173.6K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $7.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 44.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Packers; negative values favor Jets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJets · $535
6hJets · $535
24hPackers · $65.0K

Packers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Packers price. Jets fills are converted to the complementary Packers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h44.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d44.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Packers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$66.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$16.0K@ 44.0¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Packers (-3.5)
46.5¢$246.1Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Packers vs. Jets: O/U 44.5
47.5¢$160.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Packers vs. Jets
61.5¢$143.4Kpriority76Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Packers vs. Jets: O/U 45.5
44.5¢$11.5Kpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vikings vs. Bears
34.5¢$1.5Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
48.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bengals vs. Texans
42.5¢$1.0Mpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Titans
74.5¢$941.9Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vilkaZPackers$18.3K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.