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Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 47.5

● quote 20s ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $889.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $476.0KEvent: Vikings vs. Bears
46.5¢
Over
53.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly39Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$225.4K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $125.3K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$125.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$39.1K@ 52¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
−$53.9K
tracked
$225.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Under · $125.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Vikings and Bears combine to score 48 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 48, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Vikings and Bears combine to score 48 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 48, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $383.9K gross
Jsram3 linked markets · $142.5K gross
one8tyfive2 linked markets · $17.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Over@ 48.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Under@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $2.6K
6hUnder · $53.9K
24hUnder · $67.4K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h47.4¢▼ below by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d47.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$13.5K
45¢
← now
$211.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$14.4K@ 47.0¢
xasdasdas210xaaaa…74d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder$10.6K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder$29.7K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYUnder$12.1K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYUnder$10.8K@ 53.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYUnder$20.2K@ 52.5¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYUnder$39.1K@ 52.3¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Vikings vs. Bears
34.5¢$1.5Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-4.5)
49.5¢$333.8Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
46.5¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
48.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bengals vs. Texans
42.5¢$1.0Mpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Titans
74.5¢$941.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Steelers vs. Patriots
32.5¢$860.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rennes: Harold Mayot vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg
33.0¢$780.9Kpriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempUnder$122.5K
BUY VWAP 52.7¢·6 fills
xasdasdas21Over$17.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
pisynchik1Over$10.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.