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Rennes: Harold Mayot vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $43.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $780.9KEvent: Rennes: Harold Mayot vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg
0.5¢
Harold Mayot
99.5¢
Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution48Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority37Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:169 trades$347.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg · $25.0K net·11 wallets(3🐋)·$256.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHarold Mayot$24.8K@ 74¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg pressure: $2.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.8K
6h
−$42.0K
tracked
$347.9K

11 verified profitable wallets: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg · $25.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 37

Since latest large flow: -36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Harold Mayot and Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg in the Rennes, originally scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harold Mayot' if Harold Mayot advances against Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg. This market will resolve to 'Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg' if Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg advances against Harold Mayot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Harold Mayot12m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Harold Mayot@ 37.0¢36m ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $20.3K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Harold Mayot; negative values favor Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg · $2.8K
6hSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg · $42.0K
24hSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg · $42.0K

Harold Mayot price VWAP

Volume-weighted Harold Mayot price. Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg fills are converted to the complementary Harold Mayot probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h40.4¢▼ below by 39.9pp
VWAP 7d40.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Harold Mayot price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.0K
75¢
$16.6K
70¢
$65.5K
65¢
$11.7K
60¢
$5.3K
55¢
$15.1K
50¢
$8.9K
45¢
$2.0K
40¢
$63.9K
35¢
$2.0K
30¢
$14.4K
25¢
$13.7K
20¢
$17.7K
15¢
$21.9K
10¢
$45.9K
5¢
$13.1K
0¢
← now
$27.3K

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$14.5K@ 57.8¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$11.1K@ 96.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—6 minutes ago
BUYSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$16.2K@ 96.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—6 minutes ago
SELLSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$10.9K@ 77.9¢0xf12f…b30f🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYHarold Mayot$24.8K@ 73.7¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Harold Mayot$53.1K
BUY VWAP 37.3¢·20 fills
ferrariChampions2026Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$51.9K
BUY VWAP 28.5¢·19 fills
FlaznorpSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$36.6K
BUY VWAP 81.3¢·9 fills
kkookkooHarold Mayot$24.8K
BUY VWAP 73.7¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$17.3K
BUY VWAP 60.1¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Harold Mayot$13.1K
BUY VWAP 13.8¢·4 fills
flatbarrelSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$10.9K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.