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Cincinnati Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Liudmila Samsonova

● quote 3 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $406.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $503.1KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Liudmila Samsonova
31.0¢
YES
69.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets39Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:141 trades$205.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $15.7K·2 wallets·$27.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLiudmila Samsonova (NO)$19.0K@ 56¢·0xe907…cff6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$27.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$27.6K
6h
−$54.8K
tracked
$205.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$15.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 74% · priority 55

Since latest confirmed build: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Liudmila Samsonova in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yulia Putintseva' if Yulia Putintseva advances against Liudmila Samsonova. This market will resolve to 'Liudmila Samsonova' if Liudmila Samsonova advances against Yulia Putintseva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Liudmila Samsonova@ 64.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Liudmila Samsonova@ 83.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $31.8K → $11.9K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$27.6K
6h−$54.8K
24h−$56.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.0¢
VWAP 24h34.7¢▼ below by 3.7pp
VWAP 7d34.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$25.7K
40¢
$53.0K
35¢
$45.3K
30¢
← now
$26.0K
25¢
$23.4K
20¢
$91
15¢
$20.7K
10¢
$10.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYulia Putintseva (YES)$19.0K@ 39.0¢0x2a0d…a75f🐋—7 minutes ago
BUYYulia Putintseva (YES)$12.0K@ 48.2¢0x0353…c2ff🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYLiudmila Samsonova (NO)$19.0K@ 56.1¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLiudmila Samsonova (NO)$11.5K@ 82.0¢0x8c7d…83ed🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe907…cff6Liudmila Samsonova$23.9K
BUY VWAP 56.1¢·2 fills
0x8c7d…83edLiudmila Samsonova$19.7K
BUY VWAP 78.9¢·2 fills
0x0353…c2ffYulia Putintseva$19.0K
BUY VWAP 40.6¢·2 fills
0x2a0d…a75fYulia Putintseva$19.0K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill
RN1Liudmila Samsonova$15.5K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·8 fills
0x2978…b511Liudmila Samsonova$15.0K
BUY VWAP 81.4¢·5 fills
0x492b…45eeLiudmila Samsonova$12.4K
BUY VWAP 64.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.