Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski

● quote 56 min ago
GeopoliticsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $267.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $648.5KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:331 trades$206.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 69 min agoofficial metadata 60 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $6.8K·4 wallets·$15.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (YES)$24.0K@ 100¢·0x6982…a165

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$28.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$28.5K
6h
−$25.3K
tracked
$206.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$6.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 56 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 69 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 60 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Jan Choinski in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Jan Choinski. This market will resolve to 'Jan Choinski' if Jan Choinski advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Thiago Agustin Tirante@ 68.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $2.9K$2.7K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$28.5K
6h$25.3K
24h$28.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h63.4¢▲ above by 36.5pp
VWAP 7d63.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$32
85¢
$23.3K
80¢
$6.4K
75¢
$60
70¢
$15.4K
65¢
$17.6K
60¢
$15.3K
55¢
$3.0K
50¢
$7.3K
45¢
$23.7K
40¢
$6.3K
35¢
$1.9K
30¢
$3.5K
25¢
$3.8K
20¢
$12.1K
15¢
$12.3K
10¢
$6.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (YES)$10.8K@ 45.0¢0x6982…a165🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYJan Choinski (NO)$12.3K@ 82.0¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYJan Choinski (NO)$11.0K@ 12.8¢0xe30e…6b87🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (YES)$15.0K@ 70.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0b1feThiago Agustin Tirante$20.0K
BUY VWAP 69.5¢·2 fills
0xe30e…6b87Jan Choinski$15.8K
BUY VWAP 13.6¢·2 fills
0xd6d9…2c2fJan Choinski$12.3K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill
0x6982…a165Thiago Agustin Tirante$10.8K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.