Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)

● quote 45 min ago
SportsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $785.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $131.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$52.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 45 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVitality (YES)$26.0K@ 65¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.7K
6h
+$48.0K
tracked
$52.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$26.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -64.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 45 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 45 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between B8 and Vitality in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for August 14 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than B8 in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "B8". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h2 linked markets · $73.0K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $36.0K gross
0x0063…2dd23 linked markets · $35.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Vitality@ 65.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +16.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 11.5pp · near-book depth $1$1 · 47s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.7K
6h+$48.0K
24h+$47.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h62.9¢▼ below by 61.9pp
VWAP 7d62.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$4
75¢
$6
70¢
$0
65¢
$48.6K
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$215
50¢
$0
45¢
$33
40¢
$0
35¢
$15
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.7K

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYVitality (YES)$26.0K@ 65.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaVitality$26.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.