Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C

● quote 12 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $199.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
40.0¢
YES
60.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:242 trades$396.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ (NO)$43.6K@ 64¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$49.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$49.4K
6h
−$17.5K
tracked
$396.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$43.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 84% · priority 53

Since latest deadline positioning: -24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 12 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between FUT Esports and MOUZ in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for August 14 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FUT Esports" if FUT Esports win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against FUT Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $77.4K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $41.0K gross
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $35.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY FUT Esports@ 65.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY MOUZ@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY FUT Esports@ 36.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +22.0pp1h CONFIRMED +38.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 65.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $7.3K$613 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$49.4K
6h$17.5K
24h$20.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.0¢
VWAP 24h48.9¢▼ below by 8.9pp
VWAP 7d48.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.0K
80¢
$19.2K
75¢
$17.1K
70¢
$5.6K
65¢
$8.3K
60¢
$38.7K
55¢
$83.7K
50¢
$49
45¢
$14.4K
40¢
← now
$4.7K
35¢
$194.0K
30¢
$9.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMOUZ (NO)$12.2K@ 61.0¢0x0d7c…b7db🐋22 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (YES)$15.3K@ 59.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (NO)$15.0K@ 43.6¢0x2a0d…a75f🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYFUT Esports (YES)$32.4K@ 36.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (NO)$18.2K@ 65.0¢0xa69d…509b🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (NO)$43.6K@ 64.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (NO)$30.0K@ 64.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYFUT Esports (YES)$21.1K@ 36.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49FUT Esports$47.1K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·5 fills
AV23IUaMOUZ$43.6K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
111111111115FUT Esports$35.6K
BUY VWAP 35.9¢·2 fills
CORGI8MOUZ$30.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
0xa69d…509bMOUZ$22.7K
BUY VWAP 58.6¢·2 fills
0x2a0d…a75fMOUZ$18.0K
BUY VWAP 43.7¢·2 fills
0x6e2c…787cFUT Esports$14.2K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·17 fills
0x4572…83ffFUT Esports$12.3K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.