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Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers

● quote 117 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $156.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $335.9KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
69.5¢
YES
30.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$162.9K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 124 min agoofficial metadata 119 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMilwaukee Brewers (NO)$70.0K@ 53¢·Winnerdinnerchickenjr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$52.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$52.7K
6h
−$25.3K
tracked
$162.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$32.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 59

Since latest position change: +22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 117 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 124 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 119 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for August 19 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $43.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Seattle Mariners2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Seattle Mariners2h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Seattle Mariners@ 48.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Seattle Mariners@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $76 → $85 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$52.7K
6h−$25.3K
24h−$29.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current69.5¢
VWAP 24h47.5¢▲ above by 22.0pp
VWAP 7d47.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$12.2K
90¢
$13.6K
85¢
$1.6K
80¢
$4.8K
75¢
$1.2K
70¢
$563
65¢
← now
$36
60¢
$0
55¢
$5.0K
50¢
$13.3K
45¢
$144.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMilwaukee Brewers (NO)$70.0K@ 53.0¢
Winnerdinnerchickenjr0x408f…b2f4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$15.0K@ 47.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$32.9K@ 47.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMilwaukee Brewers (NO)$14.0K@ 54.0¢
coltsmildx0xeafc…e4c4
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WinnerdinnerchickenjrMilwaukee Brewers$70.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingSeattle Mariners$32.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafSeattle Mariners$16.1K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·3 fills
0x5e94…5ba1Seattle Mariners$15.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
coltsmildxMilwaukee Brewers$14.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.