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Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner

● quote 32 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $692.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
65.0¢
YES
99.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:200 trades$181.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 33 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit (NO)$14.0K@ 78¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$35.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$35.6K
6h
+$12.6K
tracked
$181.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 56

Since latest large flow: -88.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 32 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 33 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between BIG and Spirit in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "BIG" if BIG win Map 2 against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against BIG. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $147.1K gross
0x0063…2dd23 linked markets · $45.7K gross
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $39.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 88.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $10.2K → $510 · 3s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$35.6K
6h+$12.6K
24h+$12.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.0¢
VWAP 24h31.1¢▲ above by 33.9pp
VWAP 7d31.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$16.1K
60¢
$6.9K
55¢
$8.1K
50¢
$8.2K
45¢
$23.6K
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$6.1K
30¢
$5.9K
25¢
$16.5K
20¢
$39.6K
15¢
$14.7K
10¢
$5.6K
5¢
$1.1K
0¢
$27.7K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Spirit$16.4K
BUY VWAP 77.9¢·2 fills
0x0063…2dd2Spirit$14.2K
BUY VWAP 72.9¢·7 fills
0x6e2c…787cSpirit$11.2K
BUY VWAP 57.5¢·11 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.