Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A

● quote 62 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $126.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $954.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
25.5¢
YES
74.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:274 trades$418.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 74 min agoofficial metadata 65 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $29.9K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$29.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit (NO)$40.3K@ 60¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$17.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.1K
6h
−$137.6K
tracked
$418.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$29.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: +45.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 62 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 74 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 65 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between BIG and Spirit in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "BIG" if BIG win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against BIG. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $123.4K gross
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $36.0K gross
0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $35.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 30.0¢1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Spirit1h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Spirit@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $3.6K$5.4K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$17.1K
6h$137.6K
24h$148.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.5¢
VWAP 24h40.0¢▼ below by 14.5pp
VWAP 7d40.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$65.0K
35¢
$77.5K
30¢
$6.3K
25¢
← now
$2.3K
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$80.5K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSpirit (NO)$10.0K@ 64.0¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit (NO)$23.2K@ 60.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit (NO)$40.3K@ 60.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit (NO)$29.8K@ 84.0¢0xf559…f462🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSpirit (NO)$11.6K@ 85.0¢0xcd66…664f🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Spirit$63.5K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462Spirit$29.8K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
0xcd66…664fSpirit$12.0K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·2 fills
0x29b5…cc6cSpirit$10.6K
BUY VWAP 84.4¢·6 fills
kaheSpirit$10.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.