Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner

● quote 53 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $90.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $466.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
80.5¢
YES
19.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%
24h sample:147 trades$206.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 54 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYpaiN (NO)$22.7K@ 50¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$30.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$30.5K
6h
−$93.2K
tracked
$206.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 86% · priority 46

Since latest deadline positioning: -42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 53 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 58 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 54 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between TheMongolz and paiN in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 1 against paiN. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win Map 1 against TheMongolz. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $98.4K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $62.4K gross
0x6e2c…787c2 linked markets · $26.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY paiN@ 63.0¢57m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY paiN@ 68.0¢57m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY paiN@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY paiN1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $5.4K$118 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$30.5K
6h$93.2K
24h$93.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h54.4¢▲ above by 26.1pp
VWAP 7d54.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$62.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYpaiN (NO)$22.7K@ 50.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYpaiN (NO)$14.7K@ 47.5¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115paiN$54.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.