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Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

● quote 103 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $81.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $335.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
73.5¢
YES
26.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%
24h sample:70 trades$196.5K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 108 min agoofficial metadata 104 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTheMongolz (YES)$60.5K@ 60¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$47.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$47.0K
6h
+$9.4K
tracked
$196.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 50

Since latest liquidity absorption: +13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 103 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 108 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 104 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between TheMongolz and paiN in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against paiN. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $98.4K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $62.4K gross
0x6e2c…787c2 linked markets · $26.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY TheMongolz@ 61.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY TheMongolz@ 60.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY paiN@ 41.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $15.3K → $1.5K · 10s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$47.0K
6h+$9.4K
24h+$23.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.5¢
VWAP 24h61.0¢▲ above by 12.5pp
VWAP 7d61.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$55.5K
90¢
$40
85¢
$4.9K
80¢
$27.0K
75¢
$44.1K
70¢
← now
$41.7K
65¢
$829
60¢
$119.6K
55¢
$38.3K
50¢
$342
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTheMongolz (YES)$22.6K@ 99.9¢0xf177…5f6a🐋—42 minutes ago
SELLTheMongolz (YES)$10.5K@ 99.9¢0xd27c…c081🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTheMongolz (YES)$16.1K@ 71.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTheMongolz (YES)$22.0K@ 78.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLTheMongolz (YES)$14.0K@ 70.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYpaiN (NO)$19.2K@ 41.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTheMongolz (YES)$60.5K@ 60.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYpaiN (NO)$16.6K@ 40.0¢
happywater0xc64f…e677
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYTheMongolz (YES)$14.0K@ 62.0¢0xf177…5f6a🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49TheMongolz$60.5K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8paiN$19.2K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill
happywaterpaiN$16.6K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
0xf177…5f6aTheMongolz$14.0K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.