PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-20?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $157.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $204.6KEvent: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF
98.2¢
YES
1.8¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection53Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:92 trades$131.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 49s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$17.1K·2 wallets·$21.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$24.0K@ 86¢·0xf975…4354

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$58.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$58.4K
6h
+$96.8K
tracked
$131.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$17.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +12.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 12.3pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 20, 2026 If Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2a69…d2f73 linked markets · $124.2K gross
0F623 linked markets · $30.8K gross
swisstony3 linked markets · $18.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 86.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $17.0K → $6.1K · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$58.4K
6h+$96.8K
24h+$95.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.2¢
VWAP 24h92.8¢▲ above by 5.3pp
VWAP 7d92.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$73.2K
90¢
$21.2K
85¢
$36.4K
80¢
$3.2K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$11.5K@ 93.1¢0xbf83…3385🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYYES$24.0K@ 86.0¢0xf975…4354🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
0.1¢$5.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
40.5¢$1.2Mpriority87Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
50.5¢$723.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
100.0¢$563.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$439.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
35.5¢$306.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox
88.5¢$283.1Kpriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2a69…d2f7Yes$26.6K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·8 fills
0xf975…4354Yes$24.0K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill
0F62Yes$23.6K
BUY VWAP 94.5¢·6 fills
0xbf83…3385Yes$11.5K
BUY VWAP 93.1¢·1 fill
n.magasYes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.