Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5

● quote 47 min ago
SportsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $55.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $125.9KEvent: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF - More Markets
60.5¢
YES
39.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution29Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$53.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 55 min agoofficial metadata 50 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $2.7K·2 wallets·$2.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$22.4K@ 51¢·0xde31…df79

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$630
6h
+$738
tracked
$53.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$2.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 47 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 55 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 50 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 9.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Europa League game between Sport Lisboa e Benfica and Aarhus GF, scheduled for August 20 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Sport Lisboa e Benfica and Aarhus GF combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $2.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $6.4K$3.5K · 55s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$630
6h+$738
24h$416

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current60.5¢
VWAP 24h50.9¢▲ above by 9.6pp
VWAP 7d50.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$533
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$36.9K
45¢
$16.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$22.4K@ 51.0¢0xde31…df79🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xde31…df79Over$25.4K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·2 fills
0x3f3a…e8fdUnder$14.7K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.