Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce

● quote 157 min ago
GeopoliticsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $404.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $107.8KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce
57.5¢
YES
42.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority83Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$84.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 71%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 165 min agoofficial metadata 160 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $45.7K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$45.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMartin Landaluce (NO)$42.0K@ 42¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$41.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$41.4K
6h
−$39.2K
tracked
$84.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$45.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 83

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 157 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 165 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 160 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Martin Landaluce in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Martin Landaluce. This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Landaluce@ 43.0¢3h ago
Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$41.4K
6h$39.2K
24h$30.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h57.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d57.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$84.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMartin Landaluce (NO)$42.0K@ 42.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Martin Landaluce$42.0K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.