Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?

● quote 15 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 20 hoursLiquidity: $23.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $189.9KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?

61.5¢

YES

38.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%

24h sample:45 trades$80.5K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 15 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown (NO)$6.9K@ 42¢·0xd04b…1ee8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$4.2K

−$13.2K

tracked

$80.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
•Less than 20h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-18 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Up@ 65.0¢16m ago

Outcome checks pending

Latest book event: NO DOWN 10.5pp · near-book depth $5.5K → $1.0K · 52s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$4.2K

6h−$13.2K

24h−$13.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current61.5¢

VWAP 24h56.2¢▲ above by 5.3pp

VWAP 7d56.2¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

$17.7K

60¢