Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?

● quote 155 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $12.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $106.4KEvent: Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?

70.0¢

YES

30.0¢

4.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution39Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority34Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%

24h sample:30 trades$46.6K trackedsource coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 162 min agoofficial metadata 156 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown (NO)$4.3K@ 91¢·0x71a7…6fcf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$4.8K

−$12.3K

tracked

$46.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 34

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 155 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 162 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 156 minutes old.
•Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-18 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $282 · 79s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$4.8K

6h−$12.3K

24h−$12.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current70.0¢

VWAP 24h38.6¢▲ above by 31.4pp

VWAP 7d38.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

$2.6K

90¢

85¢

80¢

$2.7K

75¢

70¢

← now