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UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)

Sports→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $330.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $513.5KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:81 trades$210.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.6K·3 wallets·$18.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNasrat Haqparast (NO)$70.5K@ 49¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Chris Padilla" if Chris Padilla is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Nasrat Haqparast" if Nasrat Haqparast is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Nasrat Haqparast@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nasrat Haqparast@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nasrat Haqparast@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $293 → $1 · 2s

Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$44.8K
6h−$160.8K
24h−$156.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h57.4¢▲ above by 42.6pp
VWAP 7d56.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.1K
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$513
70¢
$3.0K
65¢
$53
60¢
$312
55¢
$3.6K
50¢
$180.2K
45¢
$10.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNasrat Haqparast (NO)$32.0K@ 49.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNasrat Haqparast (NO)$70.5K@ 49.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNasrat Haqparast (NO)$38.6K@ 48.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketNasrat Haqparast$141.2K
BUY VWAP 48.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.