Cancun: Lloyd Harris vs Abdullah Shelbayh

● quote 19 min ago
PoliticsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $229.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $147.4KEvent: Cancun: Lloyd Harris vs Abdullah Shelbayh
61.5¢
YES
38.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly69Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$48.1K trackedsource coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.9K·3 wallets·$16.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLloyd Harris (YES)$9.3K@ 60¢·0xff80…9b4d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$847
6h
+$895
tracked
$48.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$10.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 25 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 22:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lloyd Harris and Abdullah Shelbayh in the Cancun, Mexico, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 6:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lloyd Harris' if Lloyd Harris advances against Abdullah Shelbayh. This market will resolve to 'Abdullah Shelbayh' if Abdullah Shelbayh advances against Lloyd Harris. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $28.2K$25.1K · 12s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$847
6h+$895
24h+$5.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h59.7¢▲ above by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d59.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$30.1K
55¢
$18.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Lloyd Harris$13.8K
BUY VWAP 59.5¢·2 fills
0x984b…867aAbdullah Shelbayh$12.9K
BUY VWAP 40.3¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.