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Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

● quote 17s ago
Politics→Geopolitics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $721.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $120.5KEvent: Putin out as President of Russia by...?
7.5¢
YES
92.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly14Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:65 trades$49.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $9.4K net·2 wallets·$9.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$156.4K@ 92¢·Llalalala

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$424
6h
−$25.3K
tracked
$49.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $9.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 45 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 9d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
NewChapp2 linked markets · $15.0K gross
uycghj42 linked markets · $11.0K gross
0x3dca…3c133 linked markets · $7.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 92.0¢7d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 93.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
POSITION CHANGESELL NO@ 92.0¢13d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 92.0¢13d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $424
6hNO · $25.3K
24hNO · $48.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.5¢
VWAP 24h7.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d7.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1.1M
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.5K@ 93.0¢
Dolysuper370xea6e…2091
🐋—about 5 hours ago
SELLNO$15.7K@ 92.0¢
zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$31.6K@ 92.0¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$18.2K@ 92.0¢0x8a79…b1a8🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$18.6K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 92.0¢
apple33330xf3f9…4206
🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$21.2K@ 92.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$23.0K@ 92.0¢
zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$76.8K@ 92.0¢
Llalalala0x05e2…6e12
🐋—13 days ago
SELLNO$156.4K@ 92.0¢
Llalalala0x05e2…6e12
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$15.8K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$27.9K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—16 days ago
SELLNO$10.1K@ 92.0¢0xf285…1b96🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$65.9K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—24 days ago
BUYNO$41.0K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$24.7K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—28 days ago
BUYNO$38.0K@ 92.0¢0x04fc…0e31🐋—28 days ago
BUYNO$30.0K@ 92.0¢0x1496…ee6f🐋—28 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 92.0¢0xf5bc…ebf7🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$18.4K@ 92.0¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$19.5K@ 92.0¢
ANGGGuess0xab01…2558
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$27.3K@ 92.0¢0x1496…ee6f🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 91.0¢
SuperFake0x9901…6046
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$178.0K@ 91.0¢
bullishkirby20x5d2b…cb8c
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Dolysuper37No$11.2K
BUY VWAP 93.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.