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Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

● quote 12s ago
Politics→Geopolitics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $638.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $626.8KEvent: Putin out as President of Russia by...?
3.1¢
YES
96.9¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly36Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$29.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $7.8K net·10 wallets·$27.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$44.1K@ 98¢·hopedieslast

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.6K
6h
+$2.6K
tracked
$29.7K

10 verified profitable wallets: YES · $7.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 47d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
refzer2 linked markets · $28.0K gross
SuperFake2 linked markets · $10.8K gross
0x217a…86db2 linked markets · $200 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.9¢1d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.9¢11d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.7¢12d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.4¢16d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.4pp24h STALLED -0.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2.6K
6hYES · $2.6K
24hNO · $14.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.1¢
VWAP 24h3.0¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d2.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$488.7K
0¢
← now
$636.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$16.7K@ 2.9¢
ZnotluvuiSamez0x2889…9226
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYNO$26.1K@ 96.9¢
refzer0x4b2f…1627
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$13.9K@ 96.8¢
afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$30.4K@ 97.1¢
hose0xcc29…7774
🐋—2 days ago
SELLNO$10.4K@ 97.5¢
hose0xcc29…7774
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$37.1K@ 97.6¢
hose0xcc29…7774
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$16.8K@ 97.3¢
AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$12.7K@ 97.8¢
MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$12.7K@ 97.8¢
MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$44.1K@ 97.9¢
hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$14.4K@ 96.3¢0xc078…1a70🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$14.5K@ 96.8¢0xc078…1a70🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$22.5K@ 95.7¢
SuperFake0x9901…6046
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$36.4K@ 95.7¢
BIC050xf285…1b96
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$24.6K@ 96.2¢
IGORS0x1496…ee6f
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$16.9K@ 96.0¢
SuperFake0x9901…6046
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$12.3K@ 5.0¢
ZnotluvuiSamez0x2889…9226
🐋—20 days ago
SELLNO$15.0K@ 93.0¢
BIC050xf285…1b96
🐋—23 days ago
SELLNO$12.3K@ 94.0¢
alwaysOn0xc550…272d
🐋—24 days ago
BUYNO$19.0K@ 95.0¢
Car0x7c3d…5c6b
🐋—24 days ago
SELLNO$26.2K@ 93.0¢
NonceChaser0xb1ca…1705
🐋—25 days ago
BUYNO$34.7K@ 94.0¢
IGORS0x1496…ee6f
🐋—25 days ago
SELLNO$22.1K@ 92.0¢
Aeglos0xb665…bf8f
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$12.6K@ 93.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$12.1K@ 93.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$34.4K@ 93.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$16.3K@ 93.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$15.4K@ 93.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—26 days ago
SELLYES$12.0K@ 6.0¢
ZnotluvuiSamez0x2889…9226
🐋—27 days ago
BUYNO$19.4K@ 94.0¢
IGORS0x1496…ee6f
🐋—29 days ago
BUYNO$14.1K@ 94.0¢
Smallpeepee0x333e…369b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$13.9K@ 93.0¢
NonceChaser0xb1ca…1705
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$11.2K@ 93.0¢
poorersob0x45bc…978b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 93.0¢
NewChapp0x82da…da33
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 93.0¢
Dolysuper370xea6e…2091
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$15.7K@ 92.0¢
zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$31.6K@ 92.0¢
BlindGibbon0xe8ff…c93b
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$18.2K@ 92.0¢0x8a79…b1a8🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$18.6K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 92.0¢
apple33330xf3f9…4206
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$21.2K@ 92.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$23.0K@ 92.0¢
zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$76.8K@ 92.0¢
Llalalala0x05e2…6e12
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$156.4K@ 92.0¢
Llalalala0x05e2…6e12
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$15.8K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$27.9K@ 93.0¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$10.1K@ 92.0¢
BIC050xf285…1b96
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$65.9K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$41.0K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$24.7K@ 92.0¢
patient120xe291…748e
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

refzerNo$26.1K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·1 fill
afdafdafdafdafdNo$13.9K
BUY VWAP 96.8¢·1 fill
0x5187…aa17No$13.9K
BUY VWAP 97.2¢·31 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.