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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

● quote 21s ago
Sports→Closes: about 18 hoursLiquidity: $122.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $52.3KEvent: Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC - More Markets
36.5¢
Arsenal FC
63.5¢
Aston Villa FC
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$21.6K trackedsource coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 646 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aston Villa FC · $13.4K net·2 wallets·$21.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAston Villa FC$7.0K@ 63¢·plonker2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$21.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Aston Villa FC · $13.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 646 minutes old.
  • •Less than 18h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aston Villa FC".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for August 31 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aston Villa FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arsenal FC; negative values favor Aston Villa FC. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArsenal FC · $0
6hArsenal FC · $0
24hAston Villa FC · $13.4K

Arsenal FC price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arsenal FC price. Aston Villa FC fills are converted to the complementary Arsenal FC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h37.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d37.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arsenal FC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$21.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

plonker2026Aston Villa FC$17.5K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.