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Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-22?

Geopolitics→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $350.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.1MEvent: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich
60.5¢
YES payout
39.5¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $7.1K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$134.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$318.1K@ 100¢·jjj1995

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-22 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•If Bayern Munich wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 22, 2026 If Bayern Munich wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
tennischamp2 linked markets · $41.0K gross
swisstony3 linked markets · $35.6K gross
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $29.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 96.0¢1d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY YES@ 63.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 63.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY YES@ 62.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +16.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $3.4K
6hYES · $998.8K
24hYES · $998.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current60.5¢
VWAP 24h71.5¢▼ below by 11.0pp
VWAP 7d71.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$419.5K
90¢
$22.3K
85¢
$5.3K
80¢
$11.9K
75¢
$87.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$37.3K
60¢
← now
$1.3M
55¢
$3.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$318.1K@ 99.9¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$35.6K@ 99.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$67.9K@ 62.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$77.8K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$82.2K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$121.9K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$146.0K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$85.9K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$186.0K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$40.3K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 62.0¢0x71ac…d2b1🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$195.3K@ 62.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$83.0K@ 77.9¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$130.0K@ 61.4¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$40.2K@ 61.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$76.0K@ 61.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$11.0K@ 40.0¢
1xx30x4408…1b6a
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

3edmond.dantesYes$1.1M
BUY VWAP 61.9¢·10 fills
jjj1995Yes$213.0K
BUY VWAP 66.9¢·2 fills
AV23IUaYes$70.5K
BUY VWAP 61.9¢·2 fills
swisstonyYes$22.8K
BUY VWAP 77.3¢·8 fills
kryptontraderYes$17.6K
BUY VWAP 95.7¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesYes$14.1K
BUY VWAP 81.4¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesNo$12.8K
BUY VWAP 33.5¢·5 fills
1xx3No$11.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
sbsignerNo$10.6K
BUY VWAP 36.8¢·6 fills
0x71ac…d2b1Yes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.