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Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5)

● quote 28 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $155.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $27.4KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Arthur Fils
99.9¢
YES
14.0¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:12 trades$28.3K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 23 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFils (YES)$9.0K@ 51¢·0xwise

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.3K
6h
+$9.0K
tracked
$28.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 28 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-28 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Fils" if Arthur Fils wins by 2 or more sets than Thiago Agustin Tirante, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tirante." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Tantula2 linked markets · $6.8K gross
0x21fd…f2632 linked markets · $4.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 12.5pp · near-book depth $271 → $220 · 62s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$5.3K
6h+$9.0K
24h+$9.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h59.2¢▲ above by 40.7pp
VWAP 7d59.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$15.1K
45¢
$7.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xwiseFils$11.1K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.