Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

● quote 61 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $2.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $3.1MEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:547 trades$1.6M tracked3% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 54 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$371.3K·5 wallets(3🐋)·$509.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$134.6K@ 54¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$471.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$471.6K
6h
−$199.4K
tracked
$1.6M

5 verified profitable wallets: +$371.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +0.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 61 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 63 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 54 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 12:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Liquid and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek3 linked markets · $671.1K gross
0x73b1…bd8b2 linked markets · $219.8K gross
Sisyphus.2 linked markets · $162.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Falcons@ 99.2¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Falcons@ 99.4¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Falcons@ 75.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.3pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Liquid@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.3K$1.7K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$471.6K
6h$199.4K
24h$198.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.0¢▼ below by 28.9pp
VWAP 7d29.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$630.8K
45¢
$146.9K
40¢
$23.9K
35¢
$32.0K
30¢
$21.5K
25¢
$37.3K
20¢
$30.2K
15¢
$10.5K
10¢
$25.5K
5¢
$1.8K
0¢
← now
$623.6K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$15.8K@ 99.9¢0x21c7…42e7🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$12.1K@ 99.9¢
Skyfker0x57b4…b46b
🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$29.5K@ 99.9¢0x86e9…4cdf🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$59.3K@ 99.9¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$109.9K@ 99.9¢0x73b1…bd8b🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$43.0K@ 99.9¢0x4d51…4946🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$73.2K@ 99.9¢0x5922…3388🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$65.5K@ 99.9¢0xcd36…0f01🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$34.1K@ 99.9¢0x9909…311c🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$21.8K@ 98.8¢0x5a56…10f5🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.1K@ 78.0¢0xe3cb…ac21🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.6K@ 53.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$24.0K@ 48.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$125.0K@ 55.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$113.6K@ 54.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$33.5K@ 54.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$134.6K@ 53.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$11.0K@ 49.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekTeam Liquid$424.4K
BUY VWAP 54.2¢·8 fills
0x73b1…bd8bTeam Falcons$109.9K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x5922…3388Team Falcons$73.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0xcd36…0f01Team Falcons$67.9K
BUY VWAP 99.6¢·3 fills
Sisyphus.Team Falcons$59.3K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x19fb…bd68Team Falcons$48.3K
BUY VWAP 90.2¢·20 fills
0x4d51…4946Team Falcons$43.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x9909…311cTeam Falcons$34.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x5a56…10f5Team Falcons$31.5K
BUY VWAP 78.1¢·4 fills
0xc69b…2076Team Liquid$24.1K
BUY VWAP 48.8¢·19 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.