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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $105.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $272.6KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
41.5¢
YES
58.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly79Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$115.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 37s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.8K·5 wallets(2🐋)·$41.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$57.8K@ 52¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.7K
6h
+$54.6K
tracked
$115.6K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$4.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 12.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, scheduled for August 22 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees combine to score 7 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 7, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $44.5K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $15.0K gross
sentrio2 linked markets · $5.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $12.1K → $2.1K · 80s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2.7K
6h+$54.6K
24h+$54.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h52.3¢▼ below by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d52.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$669
50¢
$114.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$16.6K@ 47.0¢
dv-pm0x56ac…d77e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$57.8K@ 52.4¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$10.7K@ 51.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$12.4K@ 51.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$61.9K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·2 fills
SDTradingOver$23.2K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
dv-pmUnder$16.6K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.