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UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (Middleweight, Main Card)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $139.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $105.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (Middleweight, Main Card)
65.0¢
Michael Page
35.0¢
Nursulton Ruziboev
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly51Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%
24h sample:10 trades$49.5K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichael Page$25.6K@ 65¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$746
6h
+$30.8K
tracked
$49.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Michael Page" if Michael Page is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nursulton Ruziboev at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Nursulton Ruziboev" if Nursulton Ruziboev is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Michael Page" if Michael Page is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nursulton Ruziboev at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Nursulton Ruziboev" if Nursulton Ruziboev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Michael Page@ 66.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michael Page; negative values favor Nursulton Ruziboev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNursulton Ruziboev · $746
6hMichael Page · $30.8K
24hMichael Page · $38.7K

Michael Page price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michael Page price. Nursulton Ruziboev fills are converted to the complementary Michael Page probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.0¢
VWAP 24h64.6¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d64.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michael Page price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$34.3K
60¢
$15.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMichael Page$25.6K@ 65.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMichael Page$10.5K@ 62.8¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 19 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaMichael Page$25.6K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
Elaran1993Michael Page$10.5K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.