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UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $102.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $92.7KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)
34.5¢
Morgan Charrière
65.5¢
Felipe Lima
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$32.9K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Morgan Charrière · $21.0K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$21.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMorgan Charrière$18.8K@ 34¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$15.5K
tracked
$32.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Morgan Charrière · $21.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 120 minutes old.
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Morgan Charrière" if Morgan Charrière is officially declared the winner of the fight against Felipe Lima at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Felipe Lima" if Felipe Lima is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Morgan Charrière" if Morgan Charrière is officially declared the winner of the fight against Felipe Lima at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse, scheduled for September 5, 2026. It will resolve to "Felipe Lima" if Felipe Lima is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 19, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Morgan Charrière@ 35.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Morgan Charrière; negative values favor Felipe Lima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMorgan Charrière · $0
6hMorgan Charrière · $15.5K
24hMorgan Charrière · $12.8K

Morgan Charrière price VWAP

Volume-weighted Morgan Charrière price. Felipe Lima fills are converted to the complementary Morgan Charrière probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h34.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d34.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Morgan Charrière price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$14.9K
30¢
← now
$22.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMorgan Charrière$18.8K@ 34.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Morgan Charrière$18.8K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.