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LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $872.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
100.0¢
Top Esports
0.1¢
LGD Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 24 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:388 trades$369.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Top Esports · $5.7K net·24 wallets(1🐋)·$101.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTop Esports$18.9K@ 100¢·alexdinner

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

LGD Gaming pressure: $67.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$67.6K
6h
−$19.5K
tracked
$369.3K

24 verified profitable wallets: Top Esports · $5.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 9.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from LGD Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 4 against LGD Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 4 against Top Esports.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Top Esports and LGD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win Game 4 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 4 against Top Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e5 linked markets · $183.9K gross
0xe907…cff65 linked markets · $146.0K gross
0x7A3f9C2D8b41E6a570F2c93B1d4E8A2 linked markets · $142.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Top Esports@ 91.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY LGD Gaming1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY LGD Gaming@ 15.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: LGD Gaming DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $270 → $184 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Top Esports; negative values favor LGD Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLGD Gaming · $67.6K
6hLGD Gaming · $19.5K
24hLGD Gaming · $19.5K

Top Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted Top Esports price. LGD Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Top Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.5¢▲ above by 15.5pp
VWAP 7d84.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Top Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$169.1K
90¢
$14.4K
85¢
$13.5K
80¢
$27.9K
75¢
$29.5K
70¢
$11.2K
65¢
$64.9K
60¢
$13.9K
55¢
$10.5K
50¢
$14.3K
45¢
$60
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTop Esports$18.9K@ 99.9¢
alexdinner0x141a…d05a
🐋—42 minutes ago
SELLTop Esports$15.0K@ 99.9¢
ColinHe0x6842…20d0
🐋—43 minutes ago
SELLTop Esports$15.4K@ 99.9¢
crypto-ericwu20xd967…1409
🐋—43 minutes ago
SELLTop Esports$10.3K@ 99.9¢
rsufdfsfbf0x6b9c…704e
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYTop Esports$11.6K@ 96.0¢
JaJa8880xf2f2…0550
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTop Esports$10.0K@ 68.0¢
alexdinner0x141a…d05a
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

zhon37Top Esports$21.4K
BUY VWAP 77.3¢·9 fills
fkgggg2mouzfuriaLGD Gaming$16.1K
BUY VWAP 20.6¢·6 fills
JaJa888Top Esports$13.1K
BUY VWAP 91.3¢·3 fills
Pfme2112Top Esports$12.8K
BUY VWAP 70.4¢·8 fills
skdedTop Esports$12.5K
BUY VWAP 96.3¢·12 fills
alexdinnerTop Esports$12.0K
BUY VWAP 68.2¢·2 fills
alubaman123Top Esports$10.0K
BUY VWAP 82.2¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.