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US Open, Qualification ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $326.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $813.3KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori
0.1¢
Sebastian Ofner
100.0¢
Kei Nishikori
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$449.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kei Nishikori · $24.7K net·11 wallets·$48.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKei Nishikori$142.5K@ 96¢·0x14c7…9ccf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Sebastian Ofner pressure: $45.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$45.7K
6h
+$67.2K
tracked
$449.0K

11 verified profitable wallets: Kei Nishikori · $24.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -4.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Sebastian Ofner or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Ofner and Kei Nishikori in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Ofner' if Sebastian Ofner advances against Kei Nishikori. This market will resolve to 'Kei Nishikori' if Kei Nishikori advances against Sebastian Ofner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Kei Nishikori@ 95.1¢19m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Kei Nishikori@ 97.9¢19m ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGESELL Kei Nishikori@ 97.0¢19m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Kei Nishikori22m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Kei Nishikori UP 3.4pp · near-book depth $176.3K → $81.6K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Sebastian Ofner; negative values favor Kei Nishikori. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSebastian Ofner · $45.7K
6hSebastian Ofner · $67.2K
24hSebastian Ofner · $55.4K

Sebastian Ofner price VWAP

Volume-weighted Sebastian Ofner price. Kei Nishikori fills are converted to the complementary Sebastian Ofner probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h23.4¢▼ below by 23.4pp
VWAP 7d23.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Sebastian Ofner price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$16.3K
50¢
$31.1K
45¢
$55.7K
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$13.8K
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$115.3K
20¢
$14.0K
15¢
$7.4K
10¢
$28.7K
5¢
$6.5K
0¢
← now
$156.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLKei Nishikori$142.5K@ 95.8¢0x14c7…9ccf🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYKei Nishikori$95.3K@ 73.0¢0x14c7…9ccf🐋—30 minutes ago
SELLKei Nishikori$13.1K@ 44.4¢0xf3a1…bf4b🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSebastian Ofner$12.5K@ 51.9¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x14c7…9ccfKei Nishikori$101.1K
BUY VWAP 72.5¢·2 fills
danielwolfmorales3pddb6dl6Sebastian Ofner$15.6K
BUY VWAP 39.1¢·5 fills
NiNo999Sebastian Ofner$12.5K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·1 fill
0xe5d2…776eKei Nishikori$10.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.