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Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $185.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $104.6KEvent: Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B
0.1¢
summer bear
100.0¢
Spirit Academy
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:66 trades$40.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:summer bear · $18.7K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$18.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYsummer bear$15.0K@ 43¢·coali10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$30.4K
tracked
$40.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: summer bear · $18.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 02:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "summer bear" if summer bear win Game 1 against Spirit Academy.

•This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win Game 1 against summer bear.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between summer bear and Spirit Academy in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "summer bear" if summer bear win Game 1 against Spirit Academy. This market will resolve to "Spirit Academy" if Spirit Academy win Game 1 against summer bear. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 25, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Spirit Academy UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $370 → $1.4K · 38s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor summer bear; negative values favor Spirit Academy. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hsummer bear · $0
6hsummer bear · $30.4K
24hsummer bear · $30.4K

summer bear price VWAP

Volume-weighted summer bear price. Spirit Academy fills are converted to the complementary summer bear probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h21.3¢▼ below by 21.3pp
VWAP 7d21.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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summer bear price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$12
50¢
$0
45¢
$1
40¢
$18.3K
35¢
$406
30¢
$567
25¢
$0
20¢
$112
15¢
$100
10¢
$2.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$18.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYsummer bear$15.0K@ 43.0¢
coali100x7bc1…8db4
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coali10summer bear$17.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.