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Winston-Salem Open: Raphael Collignon vs Rinky Hijikata

● quote 18s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $408.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $419.0KEvent: Winston-Salem Open: Raphael Collignon vs Rinky Hijikata
61.5¢
Raphael Collignon
38.5¢
Rinky Hijikata
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$200.2K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raphael Collignon · $719 net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$20.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLRaphael Collignon$25.1K@ 76¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Raphael Collignon SETUP
What the tape says

Raphael Collignon pressure: $3.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.0K
6h
+$4.1K
tracked
$200.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: Raphael Collignon · $719 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 68

Since latest large flow: -27.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Raphael Collignon or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Raphael Collignon and Rinky Hijikata in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Rinky Hijikata. This market will resolve to 'Rinky Hijikata' if Rinky Hijikata advances against Raphael Collignon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rinky Hijikata@ 66.0¢13m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASESELL Raphael Collignon1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWSELL Raphael Collignon@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Raphael Collignon2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Raphael Collignon UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $476 → $16.2K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raphael Collignon; negative values favor Rinky Hijikata. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaphael Collignon · $3.0K
6hRaphael Collignon · $4.1K
24hRaphael Collignon · $990

Raphael Collignon price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raphael Collignon price. Rinky Hijikata fills are converted to the complementary Raphael Collignon probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.5¢
VWAP 24h57.2¢▲ above by 4.3pp
VWAP 7d57.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raphael Collignon price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$304
75¢
$36.2K
70¢
$9.0K
65¢
$4.9K
60¢
← now
$2.0K
55¢
$41.4K
50¢
$63.1K
45¢
$24.8K
40¢
$8.3K
35¢
$95
30¢
$10.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRaphael Collignon$10.7K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—2 minutes ago
BUYRinky Hijikata$10.0K@ 68.0¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—19 minutes ago
SELLRinky Hijikata$15.6K@ 46.0¢
007theone10x1f71…b2e4
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$10.0K@ 75.9¢
Tantula0xd607…842a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLRaphael Collignon$25.1K@ 75.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$15.7K@ 54.0¢0xf3a1…bf4b🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaphael Collignon$18.4K@ 55.6¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

007theone1Rinky Hijikata$34.8K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·4 fills
TantulaRaphael Collignon$23.9K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·4 fills
DonghuiRinky Hijikata$18.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Raphael Collignon$18.4K
BUY VWAP 55.6¢·1 fill
0xf3a1…bf4bRaphael Collignon$16.8K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Raphael Collignon$10.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.